{"id":3357,"date":"2014-05-14T19:33:24","date_gmt":"2014-05-14T18:33:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kritische-masse.de\/wordpress\/zettelkasten\/variation-ber-einen-satz-von-niels-bohr\/"},"modified":"2023-12-18T11:09:15","modified_gmt":"2023-12-18T10:09:15","slug":"variation-ber-einen-satz-von-niels-bohr","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kritische-masse.de\/logbuch\/2014\/05\/variation-ber-einen-satz-von-niels-bohr\/","title":{"rendered":"Variation \u00fcber einen Satz von Niels Bohr"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"shariff shariff-align-left shariff-widget-align-left\"><ul class=\"shariff-buttons theme-white orientation-horizontal buttonsize-small\"><li class=\"shariff-button mastodon shariff-nocustomcolor\" style=\"background-color:#563ACC\"><a href=\"https:\/\/s2f.kytta.dev\/?text=Variation%20%C3%BCber%20einen%20Satz%20von%20Niels%20Bohr https%3A%2F%2Fwww.kritische-masse.de%2Flogbuch%2F2014%2F05%2Fvariation-ber-einen-satz-von-niels-bohr%2F\" title=\"Bei Mastodon teilen\" aria-label=\"Bei Mastodon teilen\" role=\"button\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" class=\"shariff-link\" style=\"; 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background-color:#3b5998; color:#3b5998\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"shariff-icon\" style=\"fill:#3b5998\"><svg width=\"32px\" height=\"20px\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 18 32\"><path fill=\"#3b5998\" d=\"M17.1 0.2v4.7h-2.8q-1.5 0-2.1 0.6t-0.5 1.9v3.4h5.2l-0.7 5.3h-4.5v13.6h-5.5v-13.6h-4.5v-5.3h4.5v-3.9q0-3.3 1.9-5.2t5-1.8q2.6 0 4.1 0.2z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"shariff-text\" style=\"color:#3b5998\">teilen<\/span>&nbsp;<\/a><\/li><li class=\"shariff-button info shariff-nocustomcolor\" style=\"background-color:#a8a8a8\"><a href=\"http:\/\/ct.de\/-2467514\" title=\"Weitere Informationen\" aria-label=\"Weitere Informationen\" role=\"button\" rel=\"noopener \" class=\"shariff-link\" style=\"; background-color:#999; color:#999\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"shariff-icon\" style=\"fill:#999\"><svg width=\"32px\" height=\"20px\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 11 32\"><path fill=\"#999\" d=\"M11.4 24v2.3q0 0.5-0.3 0.8t-0.8 0.4h-9.1q-0.5 0-0.8-0.4t-0.4-0.8v-2.3q0-0.5 0.4-0.8t0.8-0.4h1.1v-6.8h-1.1q-0.5 0-0.8-0.4t-0.4-0.8v-2.3q0-0.5 0.4-0.8t0.8-0.4h6.8q0.5 0 0.8 0.4t0.4 0.8v10.3h1.1q0.5 0 0.8 0.4t0.3 0.8zM9.2 3.4v3.4q0 0.5-0.4 0.8t-0.8 0.4h-4.6q-0.4 0-0.8-0.4t-0.4-0.8v-3.4q0-0.4 0.4-0.8t0.8-0.4h4.6q0.5 0 0.8 0.4t0.4 0.8z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><p>\u201ePrognosen sind schwierig, besonders wenn sie die Zukunft betreffen.\u201c Dieser, dem Physiker Niels Bohr zugeschriebene Satz, wirkt auf den ersten Blick hin plausibel, insbesondere, weil darin der Witz zwischen Prognose und Zukunft recht eigenwillig verst\u00f6rt. Ein gedanklicher Querstand.<br \/>\n<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>\u201ePrognosen sind schwierig, besonders wenn sie die Zukunft betreffen.\u201c Dieser, dem Physiker Niels Bohr zugeschriebene Satz, wirkt auf den ersten Blick hin plausibel, insbesondere, weil darin der Witz zwischen Prognose und Zukunft recht eigenwillig verst\u00f6rt. Ein gedanklicher Querstand.<\/p>\n<p>Dabei stimmt er nachdenklich. Denn Prognosen sind noch schwieriger, wenn sie die Vergangenheit betreffen. Wer denkt, dass das was war, eine faktische Wahrheit bedeutet, der sieht allein an der historischen Arbeit, dass die Meinungen und Prognosen in dieser Hinsicht durchaus weit auseinander gehen k\u00f6nnen und f\u00fcr gew\u00f6hnlich dies auch tun. Das ist die eine Seite.<\/p>\n<p>Das zweite Problem ist aber, dass die Vergangenheit vergangen ist, die Zukunft aber noch nicht. Ob eine Prognose eintritt oder nicht, kann damit mindestens prinzipiell mitbestimmt werden. Die Vergangenheit dagegen ist abgeschlossen. Auch wenn sie nicht endg\u00fcltig aufschlie\u00dfbar ist.<\/p>\n<p>Und etwas Drittes: Prognosen sind eigentlich nie schwierig sondern eher grunds\u00e4tzlich sehr einfach. Schwierig ist h\u00f6chstens die Prognose als plausibel zu erkl\u00e4ren. 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